Harry
Maguire
CBEngland · Manchester United
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
HarryMaguire
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Manchester United
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 194 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Maguire at €8M. Model A, which never saw Maguire during training, estimates €5.4M: the market value is 48% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 64
- Minutes
- 4,450
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 49/64
- Min / app
- 70
- Cards
- 13Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maguire…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Goals per 90
Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.12 this player0.03 defender median92nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Sept 2011
- Peak
- €70M
- Sept 2019
- Model target
- €8M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 38
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €8M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-05 | €50k | Sheffield United |
| 2012-03-14 | €150k | Sheffield United |
| 2012-11-17 | €250k | Sheffield United |
| 2013-09-16 | €750k | Sheffield United |
| 2014-08-12 | €3M | Hull City |
| 2015-02-24 | €2M | Wigan Athletic |
| 2015-09-24 | €2M | Hull City |
| 2016-04-20 | €2.5M | Hull City |
| 2016-08-01 | €2.5M | Hull City |
| 2017-02-20 | €2.5M | Hull City |
| 2017-06-28 | €8M | Hull City |
| 2018-01-02 | €15M | Leicester City |
| 2018-05-28 | €25M | Leicester City |
| 2018-07-16 | €35M | Leicester City |
| 2018-08-13 | €45M | Leicester City |
| 2018-12-19 | €45M | Leicester City |
| 2019-06-13 | €50M | Leicester City |
| 2019-09-12 | €70M | Manchester United |
| 2019-12-10 | €70M | Manchester United |
| 2020-04-08 | €56M | Manchester United |
| 2020-10-13 | €50M | Manchester United |
| 2020-12-17 | €40M | Manchester United |
| 2021-03-18 | €40M | Manchester United |
| 2021-05-28 | €45M | Manchester United |
| 2021-07-15 | €50M | Manchester United |
| 2021-12-23 | €48M | Manchester United |
| 2022-03-29 | €40M | Manchester United |
| 2022-06-15 | €38M | Manchester United |
| 2022-09-15 | €30M | Manchester United |
| 2022-11-03 | €30M | Manchester United |
| 2023-03-16 | €25M | Manchester United |
| 2023-06-20 | €20M | Manchester United |
| 2023-12-19 | €20M | Manchester United |
| 2024-05-27 | €18M | Manchester United |
| 2024-12-16 | €15M | Manchester United |
| 2025-05-30 | €13M | Manchester United |
| 2025-12-09 | €10M | Manchester United |
| 2026-06-03 | €8M | Manchester United |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.395
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 27% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Maguire appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- XhakaDMSunderland AFC · Premier League€8M
- ShawLBManchester United · Premier League€8M
- ChristieCMAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€8M
- TeteRBFulham FC · Premier League€8M
- LaporteCBAthletic Bilbao · defenders€8M
- CanceloRBFC Barcelona · defenders€8M
- ElvediCBBorussia Mönchengladbach · defenders€8M
- ChristensenCBFC Barcelona · defenders€8M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).