FairValue

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Valeriy

Bondar

CBUkraine · Shakhtar Donetsk

№ 396394Established €17.2M −0.77

Player dossierPremier Liha

ValeriyBondar

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Shakhtar Donetsk
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
27
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bondar at €8M. Model A, which never saw Bondar during training, estimates €17.2M: the market value is 54% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €17M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.77A €17.2M▼ −0.75B €17M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
6,606
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
72/76
Min / app
87
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bondar…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €17.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Valeriy Bondar's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 88th67thGoals35thAssists96thMinutes83rdStarts90thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,606 this player2,860 defender median96th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
May 2019
Peak
€8M
Dec 2025
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
1 club change
Jun 2026€8MShakhtar DonetskValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Shakhtar Donetsk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-05-07€50kShakhtar Donetsk II
2019-06-20€700kShakhtar Donetsk II
2020-01-08€1.8MShakhtar Donetsk
2020-04-08€1.6MShakhtar Donetsk
2020-09-04€2MShakhtar Donetsk
2021-01-14€3.5MShakhtar Donetsk
2021-06-07€3MShakhtar Donetsk
2021-12-20€2.5MShakhtar Donetsk
2022-05-18€2.5MShakhtar Donetsk
2022-12-06€4MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-03-28€5MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-06-21€5MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-12-11€5MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-06-06€5MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-12-17€6MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-06-10€6MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-09-10€7MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-12-18€8MShakhtar Donetsk
2026-06-02€8MShakhtar Donetsk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.767

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 96% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bondar appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).