FairValue

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Dani

Figueira

GKPortugal · Gil Vicente FC

№ 475407Emerging €699k −0.33

Player dossierLiga Portugal

DaniFigueira

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Gil Vicente FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
27
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Figueira at €500k. Model A, which never saw Figueira during training, estimates €699k: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €694k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.33A €699k▼ −0.33B €694k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
11
Minutes
930
Started
10/11
Min / app
85
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Figueira…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €699k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dani Figueira's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 16th, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 32nd, European club minutes 32nd16thMinutes8thStarts32ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2017
Peak
€1.5M
Nov 2022
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
May 2026€500kGil Vicente FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-09-08€50kVitória Guimarães SC B
2018-02-23€50kVitória Guimarães SC B
2018-06-29€75kVitória Guimarães SC B
2019-02-12€350kVitória Guimarães SC B
2019-06-29€300kVitória Guimarães SC B
2019-12-31€350kGD Estoril Praia
2020-04-08€325kGD Estoril Praia
2020-11-02€325kGD Estoril Praia
2021-06-29€600kGD Estoril Praia
2021-12-27€800kGD Estoril Praia
2022-05-31€1MGD Estoril Praia
2022-11-01€1.5MGD Estoril Praia
2023-06-16€1.5MGD Estoril Praia
2023-12-27€1.2MGD Estoril Praia
2024-06-06€1MGD Estoril Praia
2024-12-16€750kLeixões SC
2025-06-23€750kLeixões SC
2025-12-18€300kGil Vicente FC
2026-05-28€500kGil Vicente FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.335

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 20% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Figueira appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).