FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ransford

Königsdörffer

CFGhana · Hamburger SV

№ 470038Established €8.1M −0.48

Player dossierBundesliga

RansfordKönigsdörffer

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Hamburger SV
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Ghana
Age
24
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Königsdörffer at €5M. Model A, which never saw Königsdörffer during training, estimates €8.1M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.48A €8.1M▲ +0.45B €3.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
2,630
Goals
6
Assists
0
Started
32/36
Min / app
73
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Königsdörffer…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €8.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ransford Königsdörffer's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 37th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 59th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 28th37thGoals6thAssists59thMinutes93rdStarts90thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

89% this player59% attacker median93rd percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Apr 2020
Peak
€6M
Jun 2025
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
20
2 club changes
May 2026€5MHamburger SVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, Hamburger SV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-04-02€150kDynamo Dresden U19
2020-07-15€250kSG Dynamo Dresden
2020-11-11€350kSG Dynamo Dresden
2021-01-20€400kSG Dynamo Dresden
2021-03-26€500kSG Dynamo Dresden
2021-06-14€800kSG Dynamo Dresden
2021-10-13€1MSG Dynamo Dresden
2021-12-15€1MSG Dynamo Dresden
2022-06-16€1.3MSG Dynamo Dresden
2022-09-28€2MHamburger SV
2022-11-30€2.5MHamburger SV
2023-06-28€2MHamburger SV
2023-10-20€1.7MHamburger SV
2023-12-15€1.7MHamburger SV
2024-06-06€1.7MHamburger SV
2024-09-25€2.5MHamburger SV
2024-12-19€3MHamburger SV
2025-06-19€6MHamburger SV
2025-12-19€4MHamburger SV
2026-05-27€5MHamburger SV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.479

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Königsdörffer appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).