Jan
Thielmann
RWGermany · 1.FC Köln
Player dossierBundesliga
JanThielmann
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- 1.FC Köln
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Thielmann at €5M. Model A, which never saw Thielmann during training, estimates €5.1M: the market value is 1% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 27
- Minutes
- 1,570
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 20/27
- Min / app
- 58
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Thielmann…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
74% this player59% attacker median74th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Dec 2019
- Peak
- €9M
- Sept 2022
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 20
- 1 club change
May 2026: €5M, 1.FC Köln. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-17 | €250k | 1.FC Köln U19 |
| 2020-02-11 | €2.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.3M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2021-02-10 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2021-06-09 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2021-10-07 | €5.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2021-12-22 | €5.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2022-06-09 | €7.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2022-09-21 | €9M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2022-11-09 | €9M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2023-03-29 | €7.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2023-06-22 | €6.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2023-12-14 | €6.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2024-05-29 | €5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2024-12-19 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-03-26 | €3M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-06-19 | €3M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-10-14 | €5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-12-19 | €5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2026-05-27 | €5M | 1.FC Köln |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.011
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Thielmann appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OrbánCBRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€5M
- GinterCBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€5M
- GuerreiroLBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€5M
- VavroCBVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€5M
- WoodCFNottingham Forest · attackers€5M
- PolitanoRWSSC Napoli · attackers€5M
- SaïdSSRC Lens · attackers€5M
- ThauvinRWRC Lens · attackers€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).