FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ander

Guevara

CMSpain · Deportivo Alavés

№ 465967Established €2.3M +0.10

Player dossierLaLiga

AnderGuevara

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Deportivo Alavés
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Guevara at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Guevara during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 11% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €2.3M▼ −0.12B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
3,012
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
27/65
Min / app
46
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Guevara…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €2.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ander Guevara's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 24th, Assists per 90 33rd, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 13th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 30th24thGoals33rdAssists58thMinutes13thStarts31stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,012 this player2,607 midfielder median58th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2017
Peak
€7.5M
Dec 2019
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
2 club changes
Jun 2026€2.5MDeportivo AlavésValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Deportivo Alavés. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€100kReal Sociedad B
2018-01-01€150kReal Sociedad B
2018-05-30€250kReal Sociedad B
2019-02-19€250kReal Sociedad B
2019-06-01€2.5MReal Sociedad B
2019-12-20€7.5MReal Sociedad
2020-04-08€6MReal Sociedad
2020-10-08€6MReal Sociedad
2021-01-05€6MReal Sociedad
2021-06-10€7.5MReal Sociedad
2021-12-30€7.5MReal Sociedad
2022-06-03€5MReal Sociedad
2022-11-07€5MReal Sociedad
2023-06-13€2.5MReal Sociedad
2023-12-22€5MDeportivo Alavés
2024-06-07€5MDeportivo Alavés
2024-12-27€5MDeportivo Alavés
2025-03-21€4MDeportivo Alavés
2025-06-09€3.5MDeportivo Alavés
2025-12-12€3MDeportivo Alavés
2026-06-05€2.5MDeportivo Alavés

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.103

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 34% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Guevara appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).