FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Torbjørn

Heggem

CBNorway · Bologna FC 1909

№ 464469Elite €8.1M +0.48

Player dossierSerie A

TorbjørnHeggem

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Bologna FC 1909
League
Serie A
Nationality
Norway
Age
27
Height
192 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Heggem at €13M. Model A, which never saw Heggem during training, estimates €8.1M: the market value is 61% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.48A €8.1M▲ +0.64B €6.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,871
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
32/38
Min / app
76
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Heggem…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €8.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Torbjørn Heggem's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 80th18thGoals17thAssists50thMinutes54thStarts86thRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,871 this player1,687 defender median86th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2019
Peak
€14M
Dec 2025
Model target
€13M
May 2026
Valuations
14
5 club changes
May 2026€13MBologna FC 1909Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €13M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-15€100kRanheim IL
2019-12-29€200kRanheim IL
2020-12-31€200kRosenborg BK II
2022-01-03€250kSandnes Ulf
2022-12-09€250kSandnes Ulf
2023-06-27€350kIF Brommapojkarna
2023-12-08€450kIF Brommapojkarna
2024-06-13€500kIF Brommapojkarna
2024-09-24€1MWest Bromwich Albion
2024-12-30€1MWest Bromwich Albion
2025-05-27€1.2MWest Bromwich Albion
2025-10-07€7.5MBologna FC 1909
2025-12-23€14MBologna FC 1909
2026-05-29€13MBologna FC 1909

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.478

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 72% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Heggem appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).