FairValue

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Portrait of Omar Alderete

Omar

Alderete

CBParaguay · Sunderland AFC

№ 353032Elite €18.3M −0.34

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

OmarAlderete

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Sunderland AFC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Paraguay
Age
29
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Alderete at €13M. Model A, which never saw Alderete during training, estimates €18.3M: the market value is 29% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.41. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.34A €18.3M▲ +0.91B €5.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
70
Minutes
5,965
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
68/70
Min / app
85
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alderete…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €18.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Omar Alderete's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 92nd, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 30th48thGoals35thAssists92ndMinutes90thStarts87thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,965 this player2,860 defender median92nd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Oct 2017
Peak
€15M
Mar 2026
Model target
€13M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
Jun 2026€13MSunderland AFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €13M, Sunderland AFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-09€600kClub de Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
2018-05-08€900kClub de Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
2018-12-18€900kCA Huracán
2019-10-07€900kFC Basel 1893
2020-01-06€2.5MFC Basel 1893
2020-04-08€2MFC Basel 1893
2020-07-31€3MFC Basel 1893
2020-11-26€6.5MHertha BSC
2021-02-10€6.5MHertha BSC
2021-03-31€4.5MHertha BSC
2021-06-09€4.5MHertha BSC
2021-10-13€6MValencia CF
2021-12-30€7MValencia CF
2022-06-03€10MValencia CF
2022-09-23€7MGetafe CF
2022-11-07€4MGetafe CF
2023-06-13€4MGetafe CF
2023-10-13€3MGetafe CF
2023-12-22€3MGetafe CF
2024-06-07€5MGetafe CF
2024-12-27€5MGetafe CF
2025-03-21€8MGetafe CF
2025-06-09€8MGetafe CF
2025-10-17€10MSunderland AFC
2025-12-09€12MSunderland AFC
2026-03-09€15MSunderland AFC
2026-06-03€13MSunderland AFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.344

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 40% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Alderete appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).