FairValue

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Portrait of Rico Henry

Rico

Henry

LBJamaica · Brentford FC

№ 339556Elite €8.4M +0.44

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

RicoHenry

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Brentford FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Jamaica
Age
28
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Henry at €13M. Model A, which never saw Henry during training, estimates €8.4M: the market value is 55% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €648k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.44A €8.4M▲ +3.00B €648k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
1,913
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
20/36
Min / app
53
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Henry…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €8.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Rico Henry's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists32ndMinutes11thStarts53rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,755 this player1,687 defender median53rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2015
Peak
€28M
Jun 2023
Model target
€13M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
1 club change
Jun 2026€13MBrentford FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €13M, Brentford FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-02-27€50kWalsall FC
2015-10-16€100kWalsall FC
2016-05-30€500kWalsall FC
2016-09-01€1.3MBrentford FC
2017-02-27€1.3MBrentford FC
2017-09-18€1.5MBrentford FC
2018-02-27€1.5MBrentford FC
2018-09-24€1MBrentford FC
2019-06-28€1MBrentford FC
2019-10-17€2MBrentford FC
2020-02-27€2.5MBrentford FC
2020-04-08€2MBrentford FC
2020-10-15€3MBrentford FC
2020-12-22€4.5MBrentford FC
2021-03-10€5MBrentford FC
2021-06-30€7MBrentford FC
2021-10-05€10MBrentford FC
2021-12-23€15MBrentford FC
2022-03-29€18MBrentford FC
2022-06-15€20MBrentford FC
2022-11-03€22MBrentford FC
2023-06-20€28MBrentford FC
2023-12-19€25MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€20MBrentford FC
2024-12-16€20MBrentford FC
2025-03-18€17MBrentford FC
2025-05-30€15MBrentford FC
2025-12-09€15MBrentford FC
2026-06-03€13MBrentford FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.439

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 40% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Henry appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).