FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mardochée

Nzita

LBBelgium · Royal Charleroi SC

№ 463738Emerging €2.4M −0.49

Player dossierPro League

MardochéeNzita

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Royal Charleroi SC
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
26
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nzita at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Nzita during training, estimates €2.4M: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.49A €2.4M▼ −1.09B €4.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
3,754
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
41/54
Min / app
70
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nzita…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Mardochée Nzita's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 68th, Minutes, two years 66th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 66th18thGoals68thAssists66thMinutes37thStarts92ndRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,198 this player1,687 defender median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2019
Peak
€1.5M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
3 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Royal Charleroi SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-01€50kAC Perugia Calcio
2019-12-30€150kAC Perugia Calcio
2020-08-21€300kAC Perugia Calcio
2021-02-22€400kDelfino Pescara 1936
2021-06-24€400kDelfino Pescara 1936
2021-12-21€350kDelfino Pescara 1936
2022-06-21€300kDelfino Pescara 1936
2022-10-05€200kBeerschot VA
2022-12-22€300kBeerschot VA
2023-05-30€300kBeerschot VA
2023-10-02€400kBeerschot VA
2023-12-28€650kBeerschot VA
2024-06-20€900kBeerschot VA
2024-12-11€750kRoyal Charleroi SC
2025-06-12€1MRoyal Charleroi SC
2025-12-10€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2026-06-04€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.489

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 39% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nzita appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).