FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Kyle Walker

Kyle

Walker

RBEngland · Burnley FC

№ 95424Emerging €1.1M +0.30

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

KyleWalker

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
36
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Walker at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Walker during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 35% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €1.1M▼ −0.37B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
5,212
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
56/69
Min / app
76
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Walker…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kyle Walker's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 47th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 67th18thGoals47thAssists86thMinutes47thStarts91stRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,097 this player1,687 defender median91st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2009
Peak
€50M
Mar 2018
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
40
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-07-02€50kSheffield United
2009-09-21€3MSheffield United
2010-08-13€2MTottenham Hotspur
2011-08-08€5.5MTottenham Hotspur
2012-02-06€13MTottenham Hotspur
2012-06-24€16MTottenham Hotspur
2013-01-28€16MTottenham Hotspur
2013-07-02€17MTottenham Hotspur
2014-01-15€19MTottenham Hotspur
2014-08-12€17MTottenham Hotspur
2015-02-12€17MTottenham Hotspur
2015-07-01€13MTottenham Hotspur
2016-02-09€13MTottenham Hotspur
2016-06-01€15MTottenham Hotspur
2016-08-01€15MTottenham Hotspur
2017-02-20€20MTottenham Hotspur
2017-06-28€30MTottenham Hotspur
2017-10-23€35MManchester City
2018-01-02€40MManchester City
2018-03-23€50MManchester City
2018-05-28€50MManchester City
2018-12-19€50MManchester City
2019-06-13€50MManchester City
2019-12-10€50MManchester City
2020-04-08€40MManchester City
2020-10-13€40MManchester City
2021-03-18€35MManchester City
2021-05-28€28MManchester City
2021-12-23€25MManchester City
2022-06-15€18MManchester City
2022-11-03€15MManchester City
2023-06-20€13MManchester City
2023-12-19€13MManchester City
2024-05-27€13MManchester City
2024-12-16€10MManchester City
2025-03-25€6MAC Milan
2025-06-17€4MAC Milan
2025-10-17€3MBurnley FC
2025-12-09€2.5MBurnley FC
2026-06-03€1.5MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.304

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 7% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Walker appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).