FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Kjell Scherpen

Kjell

Scherpen

GKNetherlands · Union Saint-Gilloise

№ 463527Established €8.4M −0.05

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

KjellScherpen

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Union Saint-Gilloise
League
Pro League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
26
Height
206 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Scherpen at €8M. Model A, which never saw Scherpen during training, estimates €8.4M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.05A €8.4M▲ +0.02B €7.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
3,555
Started
40/40
Min / app
89
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Scherpen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €8.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Kjell Scherpen's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 84th63rdMinutes62ndStarts92ndRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,555 this player1,560 goalkeeper median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2017
Peak
€8M
Jun 2026
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
6 club changes
Jun 2026€8MUnion Saint-GilloiseValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Union Saint-Gilloise. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-01€25kFC Emmen
2018-03-01€50kFC Emmen
2018-06-29€75kFC Emmen
2018-10-04€400kFC Emmen
2018-12-28€1MFC Emmen
2019-03-13€1.5MFC Emmen
2019-06-12€1.5MFC Emmen
2019-12-18€1.5MAjax Amsterdam
2020-04-08€1.3MAjax Amsterdam
2020-06-29€1.5MAjax Amsterdam
2020-10-14€2.2MAjax Amsterdam
2020-12-31€2.2MAjax Amsterdam
2021-05-19€2.8MAjax Amsterdam
2021-12-23€2.8MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-04-12€2.2MKV Oostende (-2024)
2022-11-11€2MVitesse Arnhem
2023-06-23€2MVitesse Arnhem
2023-12-11€3MSK Sturm Graz
2024-05-21€3MSK Sturm Graz
2024-10-10€4MSK Sturm Graz
2024-12-17€4MSK Sturm Graz
2025-06-06€5MSK Sturm Graz
2025-12-10€7MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2026-06-04€8MUnion Saint-Gilloise

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.052

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 93% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 85% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Scherpen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).