FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Antoine

Makoumbou

DMCongo · Samsunspor

№ 460651Established €2.7M +0.39

Player dossierSüper Lig

AntoineMakoumbou

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Samsunspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Congo
Age
27
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Makoumbou at €4M. Model A, which never saw Makoumbou during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 48% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €2.7M▼ −0.06B €4.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
4,666
Goals
1
Assists
4
Started
53/68
Min / app
69
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Makoumbou…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Antoine Makoumbou's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 64th21stGoals42ndAssists83rdMinutes67thStarts79thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,666 this player2,607 midfielder median83rd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
May 2018
Peak
€4.5M
Dec 2023
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
16
5 club changes
May 2026€4MSamsunsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Samsunspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-16€150kAC Ajaccio
2018-08-06€50k1.FSV Mainz 05 II
2019-02-11€50k1.FSV Mainz 05 II
2021-01-06€50kNK Tabor Sezana
2021-06-08€150kNK Tabor Sezana
2021-12-15€300kNK Maribor
2022-06-27€800kNK Maribor
2022-09-27€2.2MCagliari Calcio
2022-12-22€2.2MCagliari Calcio
2023-06-12€3MCagliari Calcio
2023-12-20€4.5MCagliari Calcio
2024-06-05€4.5MCagliari Calcio
2024-12-18€4MCagliari Calcio
2025-06-17€3.5MCagliari Calcio
2025-12-17€4MSamsunspor
2026-05-21€4MSamsunspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.392

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 77% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Makoumbou appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).