FairValue

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Portrait of Nicolò Cambiaghi

Nicolò

Cambiaghi

LWItaly · Bologna FC 1909

№ 459151Elite €10.8M +0.26

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

NicolòCambiaghi

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Bologna FC 1909
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
25
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cambiaghi at €14M. Model A, which never saw Cambiaghi during training, estimates €10.8M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €10.8M▲ +0.83B €6.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
2,865
Goals
5
Assists
10
Started
28/62
Min / app
46
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cambiaghi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €14M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €14MModel A €10.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Nicolò Cambiaghi's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 25th, Assists per 90 92nd, Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 79th25thGoals92ndAssists64thMinutes27thStarts78thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.31 this player0.15 attacker median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jun 2019
Peak
€18M
Dec 2025
Model target
€14M
May 2026
Valuations
18
4 club changes
May 2026€14MBologna FC 1909Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €14M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-17€400kAtalanta Primavera
2020-04-08€350kAtalanta Primavera
2020-06-26€300kAtalanta Primavera
2021-02-22€350kAC Reggiana 1919
2021-06-24€350kAC Reggiana 1919
2021-12-29€600kPordenone Calcio
2022-06-06€2MPordenone Calcio
2022-11-11€2MFC Empoli
2023-03-21€3MFC Empoli
2023-06-15€8MFC Empoli
2023-12-20€7.5MFC Empoli
2024-06-05€7MFC Empoli
2024-12-18€7MBologna FC 1909
2025-06-17€8.5MBologna FC 1909
2025-10-07€10MBologna FC 1909
2025-12-23€18MBologna FC 1909
2026-03-24€16MBologna FC 1909
2026-05-29€14MBologna FC 1909

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.262

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 73% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€14MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 81% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€14MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cambiaghi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).