Vincent
Müller
GKGermany · Aalborg BK
Player dossierSuperliga
VincentMüller
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Aalborg BK
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
SuperligaReading the valuation
The market values Müller at €900k. Model A, which never saw Müller during training, estimates €362k: the market value is 149% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €635k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 24
- Minutes
- 2,085
- Started
- 24/24
- Min / app
- 87
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Müller…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Feb 2019
- Peak
- €900k
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €900k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 20
- 4 club changes
Dec 2025: €900k, Aalborg BK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-05 | €25k | 1.FC Köln U19 |
| 2019-07-15 | €50k | Würzburger Kickers |
| 2019-09-23 | €75k | Würzburger Kickers |
| 2019-12-11 | €175k | Würzburger Kickers |
| 2020-04-03 | €225k | Würzburger Kickers |
| 2020-07-17 | €300k | Würzburger Kickers |
| 2020-10-14 | €300k | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2020-12-31 | €300k | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2021-05-19 | €300k | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2022-01-05 | €300k | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2022-06-08 | €300k | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2022-10-05 | €500k | MSV Duisburg |
| 2022-12-08 | €500k | MSV Duisburg |
| 2023-06-13 | €500k | MSV Duisburg |
| 2023-10-19 | €450k | MSV Duisburg |
| 2023-12-28 | €400k | MSV Duisburg |
| 2024-06-11 | €400k | MSV Duisburg |
| 2024-12-09 | €700k | Aalborg BK |
| 2025-06-16 | €850k | Aalborg BK |
| 2025-12-18 | €900k | Aalborg BK |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.911
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 54% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 45% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Müller appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- KlaiberRBBröndby IF · Superliga€900k
- MelingLBFC Copenhagen · Superliga€900k
- QamiliRWSönderjyske Fodbold · Superliga€900k
- BundgaardLBViborg FF · Superliga€900k
- LopesGKFC Nantes · goalkeepers€900k
- TerraccianoGKAC Milan · goalkeepers€900k
- CrombruggeGKKRC Genk · goalkeepers€900k
- DiawGKLe Havre AC · goalkeepers€900k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).