FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Oleg

Bilyk

GKUkraine · Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi

№ 449084Emerging €350k +0.13

Player dossierPremier Liha

OlegBilyk

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
28
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bilyk at €400k. Model A, which never saw Bilyk during training, estimates €350k: the market value is 14% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.13A €350k▼ −1.51B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
2,340
Started
26/26
Min / app
90
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bilyk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €350k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Oleg Bilyk's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 65th, European club minutes 32nd43rdMinutes62ndStarts65thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,340 this player1,560 goalkeeper median65th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Feb 2017
Peak
€600k
Dec 2022
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
5 club changes
Jun 2026€400kEpicentr Kamyanets-PodilskyiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-09€25kSkala Stryi
2019-06-20€100kFC Oleksandriya II
2020-01-08€200kFC Oleksandriya
2020-09-04€200kFC Oleksandriya
2021-01-14€300kFC Oleksandriya
2021-06-07€300kFC Oleksandriya
2021-12-20€400kFC Oleksandriya
2022-05-18€400kFC Oleksandriya
2022-12-06€600kFC Oleksandriya
2023-06-21€400kIngulets Petrove
2023-12-11€200kChornomorets Odesa
2024-06-06€150kChornomorets Odesa
2024-12-17€250kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2025-06-10€400kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2025-12-18€400kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2026-06-02€400kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.135

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 21% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bilyk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).