FairValue

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Igor

Kogut

CMUkraine · Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

№ 448868Emerging €241k +0.51

Player dossierPremier Liha

IgorKogut

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
30
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kogut at €400k. Model A, which never saw Kogut during training, estimates €241k: the market value is 66% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €671k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.51A €241k▼ −0.52B €671k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
1,278
Goals
0
Assists
4
Started
12/36
Min / app
36
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kogut…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €241k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Igor Kogut's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals95thAssists20thMinutes6thStarts17thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.28 this player0.09 midfielder median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Sept 2016
Peak
€600k
Sept 2020
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
4 club changes
Jun 2026€400kMetalist 1925 KharkivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-09-30€300kDnipro Dnipropetrovsk (- 2020)
2017-01-03€300kDnipro Dnipropetrovsk (- 2020)
2017-06-26€300kDnipro Dnipropetrovsk (- 2020)
2018-08-09€300kSC Dnipro-1
2018-12-02€300kSC Dnipro-1
2019-06-16€400kSC Dnipro-1
2020-01-08€500kSC Dnipro-1
2020-04-08€400kSC Dnipro-1
2020-09-04€600kSC Dnipro-1
2021-01-14€600kSC Dnipro-1
2021-06-07€600kSC Dnipro-1
2021-12-20€500kSC Dnipro-1
2022-05-18€500kSC Dnipro-1
2022-12-06€500kSC Dnipro-1
2023-06-21€600kSC Dnipro-1
2023-12-11€500kSC Dnipro-1
2024-06-06€500kSC Dnipro-1
2024-12-17€400kMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2025-06-10€250kChornomorets Odesa
2025-12-18€300kMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2026-06-02€400kMetalist 1925 Kharkiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.507

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kogut appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).