FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Javi

Galán

LBSpain · CA Osasuna

№ 448628Emerging €2.3M −0.24

Player dossierLaLiga

JaviGalán

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
CA Osasuna
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
31
Height
172 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Galán at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Galán during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.24A €2.3M▼ −0.30B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
4,905
Goals
0
Assists
7
Started
56/68
Min / app
72
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Galán…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €2.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Javi Galán's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 84th, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 50th, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 79th18thGoals84thAssists82ndMinutes50thStarts70thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.13 this player0.04 defender median84th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2016
Peak
€12M
Jun 2022
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
7 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MCA OsasunaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, CA Osasuna. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€50kCórdoba CF B
2016-10-27€250kCórdoba CF B
2017-02-02€350kCórdoba CF B
2017-06-30€400kCórdoba CF B
2018-01-01€400kCórdoba CF
2018-05-30€400kCórdoba CF
2019-02-28€1MSD Huesca
2019-06-11€1.5MSD Huesca
2019-12-20€1.5MSD Huesca
2020-04-08€1.2MSD Huesca
2020-07-23€2MSD Huesca
2020-10-08€2MSD Huesca
2020-11-23€2.5MSD Huesca
2021-01-05€3.5MSD Huesca
2021-03-19€6MSD Huesca
2021-06-10€6MSD Huesca
2021-12-30€6MCelta de Vigo
2022-03-21€9MCelta de Vigo
2022-06-03€12MCelta de Vigo
2022-11-07€12MCelta de Vigo
2023-06-13€12MCelta de Vigo
2023-12-22€7MAtlético de Madrid
2024-06-07€7MReal Sociedad
2024-10-11€5MAtlético de Madrid
2024-12-27€4MAtlético de Madrid
2025-06-09€4MAtlético de Madrid
2025-12-12€3.5MAtlético de Madrid
2026-03-16€2MCA Osasuna
2026-06-05€1.8MCA Osasuna

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.243

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 25% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 48% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Galán appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).