FairValue

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Portrait of Douglas Luiz

Douglas

Luiz

CMBrazil · Aston Villa

№ 447661Elite €13M +0.33

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DouglasLuiz

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
28
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Luiz at €18M. Model A, which never saw Luiz during training, estimates €13M: the market value is 39% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.33A €13M▲ +0.64B €9.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
2,466
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
27/60
Min / app
41
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Luiz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €13M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Douglas Luiz's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 27th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 97th27thGoals40thAssists47thMinutes16thStarts53rdRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

32% this player0% midfielder median97th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€6M
Aug 2017
Peak
€70M
Mar 2024
Model target
€18M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
4 club changes
Jun 2026€18MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €18M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€6MGirona FC
2018-01-01€5MGirona FC
2018-03-22€3MGirona FC
2018-05-30€1.5MGirona FC
2018-10-31€2.5MGirona FC
2018-12-21€2.5MGirona FC
2019-06-11€2.5MGirona FC
2019-09-12€10MAston Villa
2019-12-10€20MAston Villa
2020-04-08€18MAston Villa
2020-07-30€22MAston Villa
2020-10-13€27MAston Villa
2021-03-18€35MAston Villa
2021-06-08€35MAston Villa
2021-12-23€35MAston Villa
2022-06-15€38MAston Villa
2022-09-15€35MAston Villa
2022-11-03€35MAston Villa
2023-06-20€40MAston Villa
2023-10-09€55MAston Villa
2023-12-19€60MAston Villa
2024-03-14€70MAston Villa
2024-05-27€70MAston Villa
2024-10-18€55MJuventus FC
2024-12-18€45MJuventus FC
2025-03-25€38MJuventus FC
2025-06-17€30MJuventus FC
2025-12-09€25MNottingham Forest
2026-03-09€20MAston Villa
2026-06-03€18MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.327

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 50% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Luiz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).