FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

James

Scott

CFScotland · Ross County FC

№ 443726Emerging €295k −1.37

Player dossierPremiership

JamesScott

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Ross County FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
25
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Scott at €75k. Model A, which never saw Scott during training, estimates €295k: the market value is 75% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.93. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €940k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.37A €295k▼ −2.53B €940k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
18
Minutes
590
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
5/18
Min / app
33
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Scott…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €75k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €75kModel A €295k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

James Scott's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 5th, Starts 9th, Minutes, last 365 days 3rd, European club minutes 74th3rdGoals99thAssists5thMinutes9thStarts3rdRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.46 this player0.15 attacker median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Aug 2019
Peak
€900k
Feb 2020
Model target
€75k
May 2026
Valuations
17
6 club changes
May 2026€75kRoss County FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €75k, Ross County FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-20€150kMotherwell FC
2020-01-28€250kMotherwell FC
2020-02-27€900kHull City
2020-04-08€800kHull City
2021-06-30€700kHull City
2021-12-31€500kHibernian FC
2022-07-29€400kHull City
2022-10-27€400kHull City
2023-04-05€450kExeter City
2023-06-09€450kExeter City
2023-12-27€375kExeter City
2024-05-30€375kSt. Mirren FC
2024-12-03€375kSt. Mirren FC
2025-06-17€375kSt. Mirren FC
2025-10-09€250kRoss County FC
2025-12-10€200kRoss County FC
2026-05-21€75kRoss County FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.368

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 5% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€75kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 1% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€75kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Scott appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).