FairValue

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Portrait of Gaizka Larrazabal

Gaizka

Larrazabal

RBSpain · Casa Pia AC

№ 439465Established €1.6M +0.90

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

GaizkaLarrazabal

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Casa Pia AC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Larrazabal at €4M. Model A, which never saw Larrazabal during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 146% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.90A €1.6M▼ −0.02B €4.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
5,107
Goals
7
Assists
8
Started
59/65
Min / app
79
Cards
15Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Larrazabal…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Gaizka Larrazabal's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 86th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 71st, Minutes, last 365 days 85th, European club minutes 30th92ndGoals86thAssists85thMinutes71stStarts85thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.12 this player0.03 defender median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2016
Peak
€4M
May 2026
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
May 2026€4MCasa Pia ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Casa Pia AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€50kZamudio SD
2016-10-27€100kZamudio SD
2017-02-02€100kZamudio SD
2017-06-30€150kZamudio SD
2018-01-01€100kBilbao Athletic
2018-05-30€150kBilbao Athletic
2019-02-19€300kBilbao Athletic
2019-06-29€300kBilbao Athletic
2019-09-10€2.5MAthletic Bilbao
2019-12-20€2.5MAthletic Bilbao
2020-04-08€2MAthletic Bilbao
2020-10-08€2MReal Zaragoza
2021-01-08€1.2MReal Zaragoza
2021-06-24€800kReal Zaragoza
2021-12-27€800kSD Amorebieta
2022-06-29€800kSD Amorebieta
2022-12-29€600kReal Zaragoza
2023-06-14€600kReal Zaragoza
2023-09-29€800kCasa Pia AC
2023-12-27€800kCasa Pia AC
2024-06-06€1MCasa Pia AC
2024-12-19€800kCasa Pia AC
2025-03-31€1.5MCasa Pia AC
2025-05-30€2MCasa Pia AC
2025-12-18€2MCasa Pia AC
2026-03-19€2.5MCasa Pia AC
2026-05-28€4MCasa Pia AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.902

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 72% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Larrazabal appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).