Kevin
Müller
GKGermany · 1.FC Heidenheim 1846
Player dossierBundesliga
KevinMüller
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- 1.FC Heidenheim 1846
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 19 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Müller at €300k. Model A, which never saw Müller during training, estimates €826k: the market value is 64% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €374k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 53
- Minutes
- 4,740
- Started
- 53/53
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Müller…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
4,740 this player2,790 goalkeeper median74th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2010
- Peak
- €1.2M
- Mar 2024
- Model target
- €300k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 39
- 3 club changes
Dec 2025: €300k, 1.FC Heidenheim 1846. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-07-01 | €100k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2010-11-16 | €200k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2011-01-17 | €350k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2011-05-30 | €400k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2011-10-15 | €600k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2012-01-16 | €800k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2012-06-24 | €500k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2013-06-28 | €500k | FC Hansa Rostock |
| 2014-01-24 | €300k | VfB Stuttgart II |
| 2014-06-30 | €300k | VfB Stuttgart II |
| 2014-11-06 | €300k | FC Energie Cottbus |
| 2015-03-07 | €350k | FC Energie Cottbus |
| 2015-07-01 | €450k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2016-02-11 | €400k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2016-07-22 | €400k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2016-10-06 | €600k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2017-01-23 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2017-06-27 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2018-01-22 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2018-06-19 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2019-01-08 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2019-06-12 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2019-12-13 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2020-04-08 | €650k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2020-07-15 | €900k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2021-02-08 | €900k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2021-06-16 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2021-10-13 | €700k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2021-12-15 | €600k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2022-06-16 | €600k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2022-11-30 | €600k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2023-06-28 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2023-12-14 | €800k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2024-03-27 | €1.2M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2024-05-29 | €1M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2024-12-20 | €1M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2025-06-05 | €700k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2025-10-14 | €400k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2025-12-19 | €300k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.013
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
The joint lowest observed value among 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Müller appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SchwabCMHolstein Kiel · Bundesliga€300k
- DrewesGKBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€300k
- ErrasCBHolstein Kiel · Bundesliga€300k
- SchimmerCF1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga€300k
- NigmatullinGKRubin Kazan · goalkeepers€300k
- MiguelGKReal Betis Balompié · goalkeepers€300k
- PaschalakisGKOlympiacos Piraeus · goalkeepers€300k
- McCarthyGKSouthampton FC · goalkeepers€300k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).