FairValue

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Portrait of Alex McCarthy

Alex

McCarthy

GKEngland · Southampton FC

№ 95976Emerging €232k +0.26

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AlexMcCarthy

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Southampton FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
36
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values McCarthy at €300k. Model A, which never saw McCarthy during training, estimates €232k: the market value is 29% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €129k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €232k▲ +0.85B €129k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
6
Minutes
540
Started
6/6
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McCarthy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €232k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Alex McCarthy's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 4th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 32nd4thMinutes62ndStarts11thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2009
Peak
€6.5M
Jul 2020
Model target
€300k
Dec 2025
Valuations
36
6 club changes
Dec 2025€300kSouthampton FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €300k, Southampton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-01-08€50kReading FC
2010-04-21€175kYeovil Town
2012-02-07€250kIpswich Town
2012-06-22€500kReading FC
2013-01-28€500kReading FC
2013-07-02€1MReading FC
2014-01-08€2MReading FC
2014-10-05€3.5MQueens Park Rangers
2015-02-12€2.5MQueens Park Rangers
2015-10-14€4MCrystal Palace
2016-02-09€3MCrystal Palace
2016-08-01€3MSouthampton FC
2017-02-20€3MSouthampton FC
2017-06-28€3MSouthampton FC
2018-01-02€2.5MSouthampton FC
2018-05-28€2.5MSouthampton FC
2018-10-17€4MSouthampton FC
2018-12-19€5MSouthampton FC
2019-06-13€5MSouthampton FC
2019-12-10€5MSouthampton FC
2020-04-08€4MSouthampton FC
2020-07-30€6.5MSouthampton FC
2020-10-13€6.5MSouthampton FC
2021-03-18€6MSouthampton FC
2021-06-08€5MSouthampton FC
2021-12-23€3.5MSouthampton FC
2022-06-15€3MSouthampton FC
2022-09-15€2MSouthampton FC
2022-11-03€2MSouthampton FC
2023-06-20€1.2MSouthampton FC
2023-10-27€900kSouthampton FC
2023-12-21€500kSouthampton FC
2024-05-24€500kSouthampton FC
2024-12-16€500kSouthampton FC
2025-05-30€350kSouthampton FC
2025-12-03€300kSouthampton FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.257

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 1% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where McCarthy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).