FairValue

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Ardian

Ismajli

CBAlbania · Torino FC

№ 435228Established €3.1M +0.49

Player dossierSerie A

ArdianIsmajli

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Torino FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Albania
Age
29
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ismajli at €5M. Model A, which never saw Ismajli during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 63% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.49A €3.1M▲ +1.06B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
58
Minutes
4,685
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
54/58
Min / app
81
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ismajli…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ardian Ismajli's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 37th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals37thAssists79thMinutes79thStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

93% this player83% defender median79th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€650k
Sept 2016
Peak
€6M
Dec 2024
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
26
3 club changes
May 2026€5MTorino FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, Torino FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-09-14€650kHNK Hajduk Split
2017-03-13€650kHNK Hajduk Split
2017-10-23€500kHNK Hajduk Split
2018-03-18€500kHNK Hajduk Split
2018-09-25€500kHNK Hajduk Split
2019-03-11€750kHNK Hajduk Split
2019-09-16€1MHNK Hajduk Split
2019-12-27€1MHNK Hajduk Split
2020-04-08€800kHNK Hajduk Split
2020-07-27€950kHNK Hajduk Split
2020-10-29€1.8MSpezia Calcio
2020-12-29€1.5MSpezia Calcio
2021-06-03€2.5MSpezia Calcio
2021-12-28€2MFC Empoli
2022-06-07€1.8MFC Empoli
2022-11-11€2.2MFC Empoli
2023-03-21€3.5MFC Empoli
2023-06-15€3.5MFC Empoli
2023-12-20€3MFC Empoli
2024-06-05€3MFC Empoli
2024-10-18€5MFC Empoli
2024-12-18€6MFC Empoli
2025-06-17€6MFC Empoli
2025-12-23€6MTorino FC
2026-03-24€5MTorino FC
2026-05-29€5MTorino FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.489

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 45% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ismajli appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).