FairValue

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Portrait of Matthias Ginter

Matthias

Ginter

CBGermany · SC Freiburg

№ 124502Established €4.1M +0.19

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

MatthiasGinter

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
SC Freiburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
32
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ginter at €5M. Model A, which never saw Ginter during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 21% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.19A €4.1M▲ +0.06B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
85
Minutes
7,346
Goals
8
Assists
9
Started
81/85
Min / app
86
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ginter…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €4.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Matthias Ginter's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 80th87thGoals80thAssists99thMinutes85thStarts100thRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,606 this player1,687 defender median100th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jan 2012
Peak
€35M
Dec 2018
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
37
3 club changes
May 2026€5MSC FreiburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, SC Freiburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-01-23€200kSC Freiburg
2012-03-19€600kSC Freiburg
2012-06-29€1.5MSC Freiburg
2012-10-23€2.5MSC Freiburg
2013-01-13€2.5MSC Freiburg
2013-03-11€5MSC Freiburg
2013-06-30€7MSC Freiburg
2014-02-12€10MSC Freiburg
2014-07-10€12MSC Freiburg
2015-02-04€10MBorussia Dortmund
2015-07-01€10MBorussia Dortmund
2016-02-15€13MBorussia Dortmund
2016-07-22€12MBorussia Dortmund
2017-02-07€15MBorussia Dortmund
2017-06-19€15MBorussia Dortmund
2017-12-28€18MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2018-04-04€25MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2018-06-05€25MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2018-12-18€35MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2019-06-05€35MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2019-12-17€35MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2020-04-08€28MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2020-09-16€32MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2020-11-26€35MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2021-02-10€35MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2021-06-01€30MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2021-10-07€27MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2021-12-22€24MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2022-06-09€18MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2022-11-09€20MSC Freiburg
2023-06-22€18MSC Freiburg
2023-12-14€15MSC Freiburg
2024-05-29€10MSC Freiburg
2024-12-20€8MSC Freiburg
2025-06-05€7MSC Freiburg
2025-12-19€6MSC Freiburg
2026-05-27€5MSC Freiburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.189

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ginter appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).