FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jonathan

Svedberg

DMSweden · St. Johnstone FC

№ 430976Emerging €168k +0.40

Player dossierPremiership

JonathanSvedberg

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
St. Johnstone FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Sweden
Age
26
Height
179 cm
Foot
–
Valued
10 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Svedberg at €250k. Model A, which never saw Svedberg during training, estimates €168k: the market value is 49% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €310k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.40A €168k▼ −0.21B €310k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
462
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
6/7
Min / app
66
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Svedberg…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €168k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jonathan Svedberg's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals83rdAssists1stMinutes80thStarts11thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.09 midfielder median83rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2016
Peak
€600k
Dec 2024
Model target
€250k
Dec 2025
Valuations
17
1 club change
Dec 2025€250kSt. Johnstone FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €250k, St. Johnstone FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-12-15€50kHalmstads BK
2017-06-20€50kHalmstads BK
2017-11-17€150kHalmstads BK
2019-01-16€150kHalmstads BK
2020-10-25€100kHalmstads BK
2021-06-09€100kHalmstads BK
2021-12-17€100kHalmstads BK
2022-06-29€175kHalmstads BK
2022-12-28€300kHalmstads BK
2023-06-27€450kHalmstads BK
2023-12-08€350kHalmstads BK
2024-06-13€375kHalmstads BK
2024-09-26€450kHalmstads BK
2024-12-20€600kHalmstads BK
2025-06-17€500kSt. Johnstone FC
2025-10-09€400kSt. Johnstone FC
2025-12-10€250kSt. Johnstone FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.400

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 32% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Svedberg appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).