FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ivan

Kogut

LMUkraine · Chornomorets Odesa

№ 426008Emerging €163k +0.43

Player dossierPremier Liha

IvanKogut

LMLeft MidfieldMidfield

Club
Chornomorets Odesa
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
27
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Kogut at €250k. Model A, which never saw Kogut during training, estimates €163k: the market value is 53% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €425k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.43A €163k▼ −0.53B €425k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,090
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
14/22
Min / app
50
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kogut…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €163k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ivan Kogut's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 15th, Starts 39th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists15thMinutes39thStarts6thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

64% this player69% midfielder median39th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jun 2019
Peak
€250k
Dec 2023
Model target
€250k
Dec 2025
Valuations
15
4 club changes
Dec 2025€250kChornomorets OdesaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €250k, Chornomorets Odesa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-16€25kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2019-12-18€25kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2020-08-18€100kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2020-10-05€125kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2020-12-05€200kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2021-06-17€200kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2021-12-06€200kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2022-05-18€200kMontecasillas FC
2022-12-06€200kKarpaty Lviv
2023-06-21€175kKarpaty Lviv
2023-12-11€250kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2024-06-06€250kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2024-12-17€250kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-06-10€250kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-12-18€250kChornomorets Odesa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.426

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 17% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kogut appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).