Alan
AMBrazil · Moreirense FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
Alan
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Moreirense FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 165 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Alan at €5M. Model A, which never saw Alan during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 40% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 65
- Minutes
- 5,280
- Goals
- 12
- Assists
- 11
- Started
- 63/65
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 15Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alan…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
97% this player69% midfielder median96th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Feb 2020
- Peak
- €5M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €5M, Moreirense FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-20 | €100k | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2021-02-09 | €250k | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2021-05-28 | €300k | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2021-12-03 | €450k | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2022-08-05 | €450k | Sport Club do Recife |
| 2022-12-28 | €450k | Moreirense FC |
| 2023-06-28 | €750k | Moreirense FC |
| 2023-09-29 | €1M | Moreirense FC |
| 2023-12-27 | €2M | Moreirense FC |
| 2024-06-06 | €3M | Moreirense FC |
| 2024-12-19 | €3M | Moreirense FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €4M | Moreirense FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €4M | Moreirense FC |
| 2026-05-28 | €5M | Moreirense FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.337
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 76% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Alan appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CarvalhoAMGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€5M
- CarevićGKFC Famalicão · Liga Portugal€5M
- GuitaneRWGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€5M
- RamírezCFCD Nacional · Liga Portugal€5M
- KokeCMAtlético de Madrid · midfielders€5M
- VanakenAMClub Brugge KV · midfielders€5M
- NørgaardDMArsenal FC · midfielders€5M
- Ward-ProwseCMBurnley FC · midfielders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).