FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Pedro Gonçalves

Pedro

Gonçalves

LWPortugal · Sporting CP

№ 426620Elite €21.6M +0.14

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierLiga Portugal

PedroGonçalves

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
27
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gonçalves at €25M. Model A, which never saw Gonçalves during training, estimates €21.6M: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €21.6M▲ +0.50B €15.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
3,794
Goals
20
Assists
15
Started
47/54
Min / app
70
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gonçalves…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €21.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Pedro Gonçalves's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 85th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 83rd85thGoals95thAssists79thMinutes91stStarts89thRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.36 this player0.15 attacker median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
Oct 2019
Peak
€38M
Dec 2021
Model target
€25M
May 2026
Valuations
22
1 club change
May 2026€25MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €25M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-11€800kFC Famalicão
2019-12-30€2MFC Famalicão
2020-04-08€1.8MFC Famalicão
2020-08-17€7MFC Famalicão
2020-10-22€8MSporting CP
2021-01-28€15MSporting CP
2021-06-01€22MSporting CP
2021-09-21€25MSporting CP
2021-12-27€38MSporting CP
2022-03-10€35MSporting CP
2022-05-31€30MSporting CP
2022-11-01€30MSporting CP
2023-06-16€32MSporting CP
2023-12-27€28MSporting CP
2024-03-08€30MSporting CP
2024-06-06€32MSporting CP
2024-12-19€32MSporting CP
2025-03-31€30MSporting CP
2025-05-30€30MSporting CP
2025-12-18€30MSporting CP
2026-03-19€28MSporting CP
2026-05-28€25MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.144

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 93% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 90% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gonçalves appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).