FairValue

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Portrait of Harry Wilson

Harry

Wilson

RWWales · Fulham FC

№ 279455Elite €21.5M +0.15

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

HarryWilson

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Fulham FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Wales
Age
29
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Wilson at €25M. Model A, which never saw Wilson during training, estimates €21.5M: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €21.5M▲ +1.00B €9.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
67
Minutes
4,134
Goals
17
Assists
10
Started
47/67
Min / app
62
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wilson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €21.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Harry Wilson's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 71st, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 28th71stGoals75thAssists83rdMinutes69thStarts94thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,888 this player1,301 attacker median94th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2015
Peak
€25M
Dec 2019
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
7 club changes
Jun 2026€25MFulham FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Fulham FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-10-16€100kCrewe Alexandra
2018-01-02€1MLiverpool FC U23
2018-09-24€3MDerby County
2019-02-27€8MDerby County
2019-06-13€12MLiverpool FC
2019-09-12€18MAFC Bournemouth
2019-12-10€25MAFC Bournemouth
2020-03-09€22MAFC Bournemouth
2020-04-08€17.5MAFC Bournemouth
2020-10-13€16MLiverpool FC
2020-12-22€14MCardiff City
2021-03-10€16MCardiff City
2021-05-25€17MCardiff City
2021-11-24€15MFulham FC
2022-05-13€17MFulham FC
2022-11-03€17MFulham FC
2023-03-16€13MFulham FC
2023-06-20€16MFulham FC
2023-12-19€17MFulham FC
2024-05-27€17MFulham FC
2024-12-16€17MFulham FC
2025-05-30€15MFulham FC
2025-10-17€18MFulham FC
2025-12-09€20MFulham FC
2026-03-09€25MFulham FC
2026-06-03€25MFulham FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.153

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 90% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Wilson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).