Igor
Jesus
CFBrazil · Nottingham Forest
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
IgorJesus
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Jesus at €25M. Model A, which never saw Jesus during training, estimates €41.1M: the market value is 39% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.64. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €21.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 56
- Minutes
- 3,661
- Goals
- 18
- Assists
- 5
- Started
- 42/56
- Min / app
- 65
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jesus…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
3,661 this player1,301 attacker median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €900k
- Feb 2020
- Peak
- €25M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €25M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €25M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-20 | €900k | Coritiba Foot Ball Club |
| 2020-04-08 | €800k | Coritiba Foot Ball Club |
| 2020-09-09 | €950k | Coritiba Foot Ball Club |
| 2020-12-04 | €4.5M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2021-05-27 | €5M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2021-11-25 | €3M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2022-05-18 | €1.5M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2022-12-15 | €2M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2023-05-31 | €2M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2023-10-12 | €2M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2024-03-08 | €1.8M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2024-06-03 | €2.5M | Shabab Al-Ahli Club |
| 2024-09-27 | €6M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2024-12-09 | €15M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2025-06-06 | €15M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2025-10-17 | €20M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-12-09 | €20M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-03-09 | €22M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-06-03 | €25M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.496
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 90% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Jesus appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WilsonRWFulham FC · Premier League€25M
- WatkinsCFAston Villa · Premier League€25M
- KluivertAMAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€25M
- AdamsDMAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€25M
- ScamaccaCFAtalanta BC · attackers€25M
- NkunkuCFAC Milan · attackers€25M
- OkaforLWLeeds United · attackers€25M
- OyarzabalCFReal Sociedad · attackers€25M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).