FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ghislain

Konan

LBCote d'Ivoire · Gil Vicente FC

№ 422850Established €1.3M +0.82

Player dossierLiga Portugal

GhislainKonan

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Gil Vicente FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Cote d'Ivoire
Age
30
Height
176 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Konan at €3M. Model A, which never saw Konan during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 127% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €763k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.82A €1.3M▲ +1.37B €763k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,661
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
30/30
Min / app
89
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Konan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ghislain Konan's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 46th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists46thMinutes97thStarts81stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Mar 2016
Peak
€8M
Dec 2022
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
27
7 club changes
May 2026€3MGil Vicente FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-03-14€25kVitória Guimarães SC B
2016-09-30€100kVitória Guimarães SC B
2017-02-22€500kVitória Guimarães SC
2017-06-26€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2018-02-07€1.3MVitória Guimarães SC
2018-06-13€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2018-09-06€4MStade Reims
2018-12-17€5MStade Reims
2019-06-03€5MStade Reims
2019-09-27€4MStade Reims
2019-12-19€7MStade Reims
2020-04-08€5.5MStade Reims
2020-10-15€6MStade Reims
2021-06-04€6MStade Reims
2021-12-16€6MStade Reims
2022-05-30€7MStade Reims
2022-12-02€8MAl-Nassr FC
2023-06-12€8MAl-Nassr FC
2023-10-24€6.5MAl-Fayha FC
2023-12-15€6.5MAl-Fayha FC
2024-06-04€6MAl-Fayha FC
2024-10-16€5MWithout Club
2025-03-27€2MBurgos CF
2025-06-24€1MBurgos CF
2025-09-30€2MGil Vicente FC
2025-12-18€3MGil Vicente FC
2026-05-28€3MGil Vicente FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.822

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 67% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Konan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).