FairValue

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Mathis

Suray

LWBelgium · Go Ahead Eagles

№ 422760Established €3.8M −0.07

Player dossierEredivisie

MathisSuray

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Go Ahead Eagles
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Belgium
Age
24
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Suray at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Suray during training, estimates €3.8M: the market value is 7% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €18.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.07A €3.8M▼ −1.66B €18.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
80
Minutes
5,419
Goals
20
Assists
2
Started
62/80
Min / app
68
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Suray…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €3.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Mathis Suray's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 12th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 75th63rdGoals12thAssists94thMinutes80thStarts99thRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,659 this player1,301 attacker median99th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2020
Peak
€3.5M
May 2026
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
14
1 club change
May 2026€3.5MGo Ahead EaglesValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, Go Ahead Eagles. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-24€150kFC Dordrecht
2020-12-31€125kFC Dordrecht
2021-10-12€125kFC Dordrecht
2022-01-12€125kFC Dordrecht
2022-06-23€225kFC Dordrecht
2023-07-04€300kFC Dordrecht
2024-01-08€500kFC Dordrecht
2024-06-10€800kFC Dordrecht
2024-12-17€650kGo Ahead Eagles
2025-03-28€750kGo Ahead Eagles
2025-05-28€1.5MGo Ahead Eagles
2025-12-02€2MGo Ahead Eagles
2026-03-11€3MGo Ahead Eagles
2026-05-28€3.5MGo Ahead Eagles

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.070

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 74% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 56% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Suray appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).