FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Aboubakary

Koita

LWMauritania · AEK Athens

№ 422377Established €4.9M +0.03

Player dossierSuper League

AboubakaryKoita

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Mauritania
Age
27
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Koita at €5M. Model A, which never saw Koita during training, estimates €4.9M: the market value is 3% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.03A €4.9M▲ +0.48B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
3,334
Goals
5
Assists
7
Started
34/60
Min / app
56
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koita…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €4.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Aboubakary Koita's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 20th, Assists per 90 66th, Minutes, two years 71st, Starts 46th, Minutes, last 365 days 76th, European club minutes 76th20thGoals66thAssists71stMinutes46thStarts76thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,089 this player1,301 attacker median76th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2017
Peak
€5M
Dec 2023
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
5 club changes
Jun 2026€5MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-25€100kKAA Gent U21
2018-01-09€150kKAA Gent U21
2018-03-30€250kKAA Gent U21
2018-06-03€250kKAA Gent U21
2018-09-11€350kKAA Gent
2018-12-27€450kKAA Gent
2019-03-04€750kKV Kortrijk
2019-06-10€750kKV Kortrijk
2019-12-13€900kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2020-04-08€800kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2020-10-16€700kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-01-04€1.5MKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-06-07€1.2MKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-10-06€900kSint-Truidense VV
2022-01-06€700kSint-Truidense VV
2022-04-12€700kSint-Truidense VV
2022-11-04€600kSint-Truidense VV
2023-06-09€700kSint-Truidense VV
2023-10-23€2.3MSint-Truidense VV
2023-12-19€5MSint-Truidense VV
2024-06-04€5MSint-Truidense VV
2024-12-18€5MAEK Athens
2025-05-23€4.5MAEK Athens
2025-12-12€4.5MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€5MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.030

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 93% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Koita appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).