FairValue

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Bakery

Jatta

RWThe Gambia · Hamburger SV

№ 415194Emerging €3.3M −1.20

Player dossierBundesliga

BakeryJatta

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Hamburger SV
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
The Gambia
Age
27
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jatta at €1M. Model A, which never saw Jatta during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 70% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €900k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.20A €3.3M▲ +0.10B €900k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
16
Minutes
939
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
12/16
Min / app
59
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jatta…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Bakery Jatta's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 34th, Assists per 90 30th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 28th34thGoals30thAssists17thMinutes76thStarts35thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

75% this player59% attacker median76th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2016
Peak
€2.5M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
24
0 club changes
May 2026€1MHamburger SVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, Hamburger SV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-22€100kHamburger SV
2017-02-07€100kHamburger SV
2017-06-19€500kHamburger SV
2017-12-28€500kHamburger SV
2018-06-05€500kHamburger SV
2019-01-08€750kHamburger SV
2019-03-13€1.5MHamburger SV
2019-06-12€2.5MHamburger SV
2019-12-13€2.5MHamburger SV
2020-04-08€2.3MHamburger SV
2021-02-08€2MHamburger SV
2021-06-16€1.6MHamburger SV
2021-12-15€1.3MHamburger SV
2022-06-16€1.3MHamburger SV
2022-11-30€1.3MHamburger SV
2023-06-28€1.3MHamburger SV
2023-12-15€1.3MHamburger SV
2024-06-06€1.3MHamburger SV
2024-12-19€1.3MHamburger SV
2025-06-19€1MHamburger SV
2025-10-14€700kHamburger SV
2025-12-19€700kHamburger SV
2026-03-20€1MHamburger SV
2026-05-27€1MHamburger SV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.197

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 7% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jatta appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).