FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sikou

Niakaté

CBMali · SC Braga

№ 413118Established €5.2M +0.14

Player dossierLiga Portugal

SikouNiakaté

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
SC Braga
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Mali
Age
26
Height
186 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Niakaté at €6M. Model A, which never saw Niakaté during training, estimates €5.2M: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €5.2M▼ −0.14B €6.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
4,755
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
55/59
Min / app
81
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Niakaté…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €5.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Sikou Niakaté's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 68th, Assists per 90 49th, Minutes, two years 80th, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 58th, European club minutes 98th68thGoals49thAssists80thMinutes79thStarts58thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

36% this player0% defender median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
May 2018
Peak
€8M
May 2025
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
20
3 club changes
May 2026€6MSC BragaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, SC Braga. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-16€800kValenciennes FC
2019-01-08€1.3MValenciennes FC
2019-06-27€1.3MValenciennes FC
2020-01-06€1.3MEA Guingamp
2020-04-08€1.1MEA Guingamp
2020-11-11€1.6MEA Guingamp
2021-03-11€2MEA Guingamp
2021-06-25€2.2MEA Guingamp
2021-12-16€2.2MFC Metz
2022-03-23€2MFC Metz
2022-05-30€1.8MFC Metz
2022-09-16€3MSC Braga
2022-11-01€3MSC Braga
2023-06-16€4MSC Braga
2023-12-27€4MSC Braga
2024-06-06€6MSC Braga
2024-12-19€6MSC Braga
2025-05-30€8MSC Braga
2025-12-18€8MSC Braga
2026-05-28€6MSC Braga

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.140

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 80% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Niakaté appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).