Maik
Nawrocki
CBPoland · Hannover 96
Player dossierBundesliga
MaikNawrocki
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Hannover 96
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Poland
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 16 Dec 2025
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Nawrocki at €2M. Model A, which never saw Nawrocki during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 86% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.86. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €558k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 12
- Minutes
- 649
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 7/12
- Min / app
- 54
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nawrocki…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% defender median30th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- May 2019
- Peak
- €4.5M
- Sept 2023
- Model target
- €2M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 18
- 5 club changes
Dec 2025: €2M, Hannover 96. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-23 | €50k | SV Werder Bremen U19 |
| 2020-02-20 | €50k | SV Werder Bremen U19 |
| 2020-09-16 | €175k | SV Werder Bremen II |
| 2021-05-21 | €175k | Warta Poznan |
| 2021-10-15 | €700k | Legia Warszawa |
| 2021-12-31 | €900k | Legia Warszawa |
| 2022-06-14 | €1.5M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2022-11-16 | €1.8M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2023-03-30 | €2.5M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2023-06-09 | €4M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2023-09-22 | €4.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €4M | Celtic FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €3.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2024-10-02 | €3M | Celtic FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €2.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-03-12 | €2M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €2M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-12-16 | €2M | Hannover 96 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.619
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 19% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Nawrocki appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GünterLBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€2M
- RönnowGK1.FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga€2M
- KohrCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga€2M
- KhediraDM1.FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga€2M
- HummelsCBAS Roma · defenders€2M
- KayembeLBKRC Genk · defenders€2M
- ToljanRBLevante UD · defenders€2M
- AcerbiCBInter Milan · defenders€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).