FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jon

McCracken

GKScotland · Dundee FC

№ 403564Emerging €634k −0.24

Player dossierPremiership

JonMcCracken

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Dundee FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
25
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values McCracken at €500k. Model A, which never saw McCracken during training, estimates €634k: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.24A €634k▼ −0.94B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
4,710
Started
52/52
Min / app
91
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McCracken…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €634k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Jon McCracken's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 74th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 32nd74thMinutes62ndStarts84thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,180 this player1,560 goalkeeper median84th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2021
Peak
€500k
Dec 2024
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
10
5 club changes
May 2026€500kDundee FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Dundee FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-03-10€100kNorwich City U23
2022-12-27€100kNorwich City U21
2023-04-06€175kStevenage FC
2023-10-27€200kAccrington Stanley
2023-12-21€250kNorwich City
2024-05-30€250kDundee FC
2024-12-03€500kDundee FC
2025-06-17€500kDundee FC
2025-12-10€500kDundee FC
2026-05-20€500kDundee FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.238

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 55% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where McCracken appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).