FairValue

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Liziero

CMBrazil · CD Nacional

№ 401526Emerging €982k +0.42

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Liziero

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
CD Nacional
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
28
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Liziero at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Liziero during training, estimates €982k: the market value is 53% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €982k▲ +0.36B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
2,347
Goals
0
Assists
4
Started
27/28
Min / app
84
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Liziero…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €982k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Liziero's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 72nd, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 95th, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals72ndAssists45thMinutes95thStarts75thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

96% this player69% midfielder median95th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€900k
May 2018
Peak
€4M
May 2021
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
22
5 club changes
May 2026€1.5MCD NacionalValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, CD Nacional. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-23€900kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2019-02-18€2.5MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2019-11-27€2.5MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2020-04-08€2.3MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2020-09-09€2.3MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2021-02-09€2.3MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2021-05-28€4MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2021-12-17€4MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2022-04-06€3.5MSport Club Internacional
2022-08-19€3MSport Club Internacional
2022-11-14€3MSport Club Internacional
2023-04-07€3MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2023-07-25€2.5MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2023-10-19€2.5MYverdon Sport FC
2023-12-21€2MYverdon Sport FC
2024-03-28€1.5MYverdon Sport FC
2024-05-31€1.5MYverdon Sport FC
2024-12-09€1.5MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2025-06-06€1.2MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2025-12-18€1.2MCD Nacional
2026-03-19€1.5MCD Nacional
2026-05-28€1.5MCD Nacional

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.423

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Liziero appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).