Edson
Álvarez
DMMexico · Fenerbahce
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSüper Lig
EdsonÁlvarez
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Fenerbahce
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Mexico
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Álvarez at €15M. Model A, which never saw Álvarez during training, estimates €5.5M: the market value is 171% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 47
- Minutes
- 3,008
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 35/47
- Min / app
- 64
- Cards
- 15Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Álvarez…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
10% this player0% midfielder median72nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Dec 2016
- Peak
- €35M
- Nov 2022
- Model target
- €15M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 26
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €15M, Fenerbahce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-16 | €500k | CF América U20 |
| 2017-07-31 | €1M | CF América |
| 2018-04-10 | €2M | CF América |
| 2018-08-23 | €4M | CF América |
| 2019-02-08 | €7.5M | CF América |
| 2019-08-01 | €13M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2019-12-18 | €13M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-03-12 | €10M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-04-08 | €8M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-10-14 | €8M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2021-03-09 | €12M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2021-05-19 | €14M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2021-10-04 | €17M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2022-01-05 | €20M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2022-06-08 | €22M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2022-09-14 | €30M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2022-11-11 | €35M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2023-06-23 | €35M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2023-12-19 | €35M | West Ham United |
| 2024-05-27 | €35M | West Ham United |
| 2024-12-16 | €30M | West Ham United |
| 2025-05-30 | €25M | West Ham United |
| 2025-10-01 | €24M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-12-17 | €22M | Fenerbahce |
| 2026-03-05 | €18M | Fenerbahce |
| 2026-05-21 | €15M | Fenerbahce |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.998
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 95% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Álvarez appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ÇakırGKGalatasaray · Süper Lig€15M
- AsensioAMFenerbahce · Süper Lig€15M
- YüksekDMFenerbahce · Süper Lig€15M
- OhCFBesiktas JK · Süper Lig€15M
- HøjbjergDMOlympique Marseille · midfielders€15M
- BrandtAMBorussia Dortmund · midfielders€15M
- AursnesCMSL Benfica · midfielders€15M
- PalhinhaDMTottenham Hotspur · midfielders€15M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).