FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ross

MacIver

CFScotland · Falkirk FC

№ 401046Emerging €417k −0.73

Player dossierPremiership

RossMacIver

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Falkirk FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
27
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values MacIver at €200k. Model A, which never saw MacIver during training, estimates €417k: the market value is 52% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €669k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.73A €417k▼ −1.21B €669k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
661
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
9/10
Min / app
66
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for MacIver…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €417k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ross MacIver's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 78th, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 22nd, European club minutes 28th78thGoals46thAssists8thMinutes94thStarts22ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

90% this player59% attacker median94th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jan 2021
Peak
€200k
Dec 2025
Model target
€200k
May 2026
Valuations
9
2 club changes
May 2026€200kFalkirk FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €200k, Falkirk FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-18€150kMotherwell FC B
2021-12-31€150kPartick Thistle FC
2022-05-31€125kPartick Thistle FC
2024-10-04€150kFalkirk FC
2024-12-03€150kFalkirk FC
2025-06-17€125kFalkirk FC
2025-10-08€150kFalkirk FC
2025-12-10€200kFalkirk FC
2026-05-20€200kFalkirk FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.734

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 26% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 4% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where MacIver appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).