FairValue

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Martin

Hongla

DMCameroon · Aris Thessaloniki

№ 398808Emerging €428k +1.03

Player dossierSuper League

MartinHongla

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Aris Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Cameroon
Age
28
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hongla at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Hongla during training, estimates €428k: the market value is 180% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €489k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.03A €428k▲ +0.90B €489k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
8
Minutes
632
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/8
Min / app
79
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hongla…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €428k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Martin Hongla's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 4th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists4thMinutes83rdStarts17thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player69% midfielder median83rd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2016
Peak
€5M
Jun 2021
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
9 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MAris ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€50kGranada CF B
2016-10-27€300kGranada CF B
2017-02-02€300kGranada CF
2017-06-30€400kGranada CF
2017-08-17€500kGranada CF
2018-01-01€400kGranada CF
2018-03-02€400kFC Barcelona B
2018-05-30€300kFC Barcelona B
2019-03-22€500kKarpaty Lviv
2019-06-20€600kKarpaty Lviv
2019-09-13€1.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2019-12-13€1.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-04-08€1.3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-10-16€1.6MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-01-04€3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-06-07€5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-12-28€4.5MHellas Verona
2022-06-07€4MHellas Verona
2022-11-11€3.5MHellas Verona
2023-06-13€3MReal Valladolid CF
2023-12-20€2.8MHellas Verona
2024-06-07€2.5MGranada CF
2024-12-13€2.5MGranada CF
2025-03-27€2MGranada CF
2025-06-24€1.8MGranada CF
2025-12-30€1.2MGranada CF
2026-06-04€1.2MAris Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.030

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 69% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hongla appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).