FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Yunus Akgün

Yunus

Akgün

RWTürkiye · Galatasaray

№ 396908Elite €39.9M −0.80

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSüper Lig

YunusAkgün

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Galatasaray
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
25
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Akgün at €18M. Model A, which never saw Akgün during training, estimates €39.9M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €35.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.80A €39.9M▼ −0.69B €35.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
5,060
Goals
21
Assists
22
Started
61/75
Min / app
67
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Akgün…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €39.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Yunus Akgün's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 97th, Minutes, two years 92nd, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 86th72ndGoals97thAssists92ndMinutes85thStarts81stRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.39 this player0.15 attacker median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2017
Peak
€18M
Mar 2026
Model target
€18M
May 2026
Valuations
30
5 club changes
May 2026€18MGalatasarayValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €18M, Galatasaray. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-04€50kGalatasaray U19
2018-04-04€150kGalatasaray U19
2019-01-04€400kGalatasaray
2019-03-27€2MGalatasaray
2019-06-04€2MGalatasaray
2020-01-03€1.5MGalatasaray
2020-04-08€1.3MGalatasaray
2020-08-04€1.2MGalatasaray
2020-10-12€1MAdana Demirspor
2020-12-30€1.2MAdana Demirspor
2021-03-23€1.4MAdana Demirspor
2021-06-02€2MAdana Demirspor
2021-10-12€2.1MAdana Demirspor
2022-01-04€3.6MAdana Demirspor
2022-03-31€5.5MAdana Demirspor
2022-06-01€7.5MAdana Demirspor
2022-10-27€8.5MGalatasaray
2023-03-14€8MGalatasaray
2023-06-08€7MGalatasaray
2023-12-21€6MLeicester City
2024-03-07€5MLeicester City
2024-05-24€5MLeicester City
2024-10-04€6.5MGalatasaray
2024-12-23€11MGalatasaray
2025-03-20€12MGalatasaray
2025-06-18€14MGalatasaray
2025-10-01€15MGalatasaray
2025-12-17€17MGalatasaray
2026-03-05€18MGalatasaray
2026-05-21€18MGalatasaray

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.797

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 97% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 85% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Akgün appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).