FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Diogo

Calila

RBMozambique · CD Santa Clara

№ 396429Emerging €1.2M −0.90

Player dossierLiga Portugal

DiogoCalila

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
CD Santa Clara
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Mozambique
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Calila at €500k. Model A, which never saw Calila during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.90A €1.2M▼ −1.85B €3.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
2,949
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
33/57
Min / app
52
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Calila…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Diogo Calila's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 70th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 52nd, Starts 13th, Minutes, last 365 days 34th, European club minutes 66th70thGoals63rdAssists52ndMinutes13thStarts34thRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.06 this player0.03 defender median70th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2019
Peak
€1M
May 2025
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
18
1 club change
May 2026€500kCD Santa ClaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, CD Santa Clara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-03-18€100kB SAD (2018-2024)
2019-06-07€100kB SAD (2018-2024)
2019-10-11€400kB SAD (2018-2024)
2019-12-30€400kB SAD (2018-2024)
2020-04-08€350kB SAD (2018-2024)
2020-08-17€350kB SAD (2018-2024)
2021-01-28€350kB SAD (2018-2024)
2021-05-21€350kB SAD (2018-2024)
2021-12-27€350kB SAD (2018-2024)
2022-05-31€400kB SAD (2018-2024)
2022-11-01€300kCD Santa Clara
2023-06-16€300kCD Santa Clara
2023-12-14€300kCD Santa Clara
2024-06-20€300kCD Santa Clara
2024-12-19€700kCD Santa Clara
2025-05-30€1MCD Santa Clara
2025-12-18€500kCD Santa Clara
2026-05-28€500kCD Santa Clara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.900

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 20% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Calila appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).