FairValue

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Maxence

Prévot

GKFrance · Oud-Heverlee Leuven

№ 394903Emerging €470k −0.45

Player dossierPro League

MaxencePrévot

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
League
Pro League
Nationality
France
Age
29
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Prévot at €300k. Model A, which never saw Prévot during training, estimates €470k: the market value is 36% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €553k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.45A €470k▼ −0.61B €553k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
832
Started
9/10
Min / app
83
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Prévot…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €470k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Maxence Prévot's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 30th, European club minutes 32nd12thMinutes6thStarts30thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Feb 2016
Peak
€2M
Apr 2023
Model target
€300k
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
1 club change
Jun 2026€300kOud-Heverlee LeuvenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, Oud-Heverlee Leuven. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-02-04€150kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2016-07-13€300kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2017-03-20€600kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2017-06-15€600kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2018-05-16€1MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2019-01-08€1MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2019-06-27€1MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-01-06€1MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-04-08€800kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-11-11€1MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2021-03-11€1.5MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2021-06-25€1.5MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2021-12-27€1.5MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2022-06-02€1.5MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2022-10-28€1.5MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2023-04-06€2MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2023-06-16€2MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2023-10-23€1.8MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2023-12-19€1.5MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-03-22€1MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-06-04€1MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-10-02€700kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-12-11€500kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-06-12€400kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-12-10€300kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2026-06-04€300kOud-Heverlee Leuven

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.449

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 3% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Prévot appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).