WilliamBalikwisha

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club: Oud-Heverlee Leuven
League: Pro League
Nationality: DR Congo
Age: 27
Height: 173 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Balikwisha at €300k. Model A, which never saw Balikwisha during training, estimates €418k: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €623k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 36
Minutes: 1,378
Goals: 1
Assists: 1
Started: 15/36
Min / app: 38
Cards: 3Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Balikwisha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.08 midfielder median41st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €400k; Sept 2018
Peak: €4M; Jun 2023
Model target: €300k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 24; 4 club changes

Jun 2026€300kOud-Heverlee LeuvenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, Oud-Heverlee Leuven. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2018-09-11	€400k	Standard Liège
2018-12-27	€400k	Standard Liège
2019-06-10	€500k	Standard Liège
2019-12-13	€400k	Cercle Brugge
2020-04-08	€350k	MVV Maastricht
2020-06-29	€325k	MVV Maastricht
2020-10-16	€300k	Standard Liège
2021-06-07	€300k	Standard Liège
2022-01-06	€200k	Standard Liège
2022-04-12	€150k	Standard Liège
2022-09-07	€500k	Standard Liège
2022-11-04	€2M	Standard Liège
2023-03-22	€3.5M	Standard Liège
2023-06-09	€4M	Standard Liège
2023-10-23	€3M	Standard Liège
2023-12-19	€2M	Standard Liège
2024-06-04	€2M	Standard Liège
2024-12-11	€2M	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-03-26	€1.5M	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-06-12	€1.2M	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-10-01	€900k	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-12-10	€600k	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2026-03-13	€400k	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2026-06-04	€300k	Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.332

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 3% of the 350 Pro League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Balikwisha appears

TerminalPro League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPro League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).