FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Felix

Bacher

CBAustria · GD Estoril Praia

№ 394134Established €2.9M +0.72

Player dossierLiga Portugal

FelixBacher

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
GD Estoril Praia
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Austria
Age
25
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bacher at €6M. Model A, which never saw Bacher during training, estimates €2.9M: the market value is 106% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.72A €2.9M▲ +0.60B €3.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
5,130
Goals
4
Assists
0
Started
57/57
Min / app
90
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bacher…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €2.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Felix Bacher's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 30th75thGoals17thAssists85thMinutes97thStarts90thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2018
Peak
€6M
May 2026
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
20
4 club changes
May 2026€6MGD Estoril PraiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, GD Estoril Praia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-07-02€50kFC Wacker Innsbruck II
2018-12-01€100kFC Wacker Innsbruck II
2019-06-01€200kFC Wacker Innsbruck II
2019-12-03€250kFC Wacker Innsbruck
2020-02-06€250kSC Freiburg II
2020-09-15€200kSC Freiburg II
2021-02-15€200kSC Freiburg II
2021-06-30€200kSC Freiburg II
2021-12-16€200kWSG Tirol
2022-05-27€300kWSG Tirol
2022-11-10€300kWSG Tirol
2023-06-12€400kWSG Tirol
2023-12-11€450kWSG Tirol
2024-05-21€500kWSG Tirol
2024-12-19€500kGD Estoril Praia
2025-03-31€1MGD Estoril Praia
2025-05-30€2MGD Estoril Praia
2025-12-18€2MGD Estoril Praia
2026-03-19€4MGD Estoril Praia
2026-05-28€6MGD Estoril Praia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.720

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 80% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bacher appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).