FairValue

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James

Sands

DMUnited States · FC St. Pauli

№ 393321Established €3.3M +0.43

Player dossierBundesliga

JamesSands

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC St. Pauli
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
United States
Age
25
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sands at €5M. Model A, which never saw Sands during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 54% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.43A €3.3M▲ +1.36B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
2,783
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
32/35
Min / app
80
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sands…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

James Sands's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 25th, Assists per 90 21st, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 30th25thGoals21stAssists54thMinutes89thStarts74thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

91% this player69% midfielder median89th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2017
Peak
€5M
Mar 2026
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
22
3 club changes
May 2026€5MFC St. PauliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-12-05€100kNew York City FC
2018-05-02€100kNew York City FC
2018-12-15€200kNew York City FC
2019-05-27€800kNew York City FC
2019-11-30€1.2MNew York City FC
2020-04-08€1MNew York City FC
2020-08-26€2MNew York City FC
2020-11-13€2.5MNew York City FC
2020-12-18€2.5MNew York City FC
2021-07-09€4MNew York City FC
2021-11-09€4MNew York City FC
2022-06-27€3MRangers FC
2022-12-13€2.5MRangers FC
2023-08-22€2.5MNew York City FC
2023-12-18€2.5MNew York City FC
2024-06-13€3MNew York City FC
2024-12-12€3MNew York City FC
2025-06-05€3MFC St. Pauli
2025-10-14€4MFC St. Pauli
2025-12-19€4MFC St. Pauli
2026-03-20€5MFC St. Pauli
2026-05-27€5MFC St. Pauli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.429

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sands appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).