James
Sands
DMUnited States · FC St. Pauli
Player dossierBundesliga
JamesSands
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- FC St. Pauli
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- United States
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Sands at €5M. Model A, which never saw Sands during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 54% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 35
- Minutes
- 2,783
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 32/35
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sands…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
91% this player69% midfielder median89th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Dec 2017
- Peak
- €5M
- Mar 2026
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 22
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €5M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-05 | €100k | New York City FC |
| 2018-05-02 | €100k | New York City FC |
| 2018-12-15 | €200k | New York City FC |
| 2019-05-27 | €800k | New York City FC |
| 2019-11-30 | €1.2M | New York City FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €1M | New York City FC |
| 2020-08-26 | €2M | New York City FC |
| 2020-11-13 | €2.5M | New York City FC |
| 2020-12-18 | €2.5M | New York City FC |
| 2021-07-09 | €4M | New York City FC |
| 2021-11-09 | €4M | New York City FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €3M | Rangers FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €2.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2023-08-22 | €2.5M | New York City FC |
| 2023-12-18 | €2.5M | New York City FC |
| 2024-06-13 | €3M | New York City FC |
| 2024-12-12 | €3M | New York City FC |
| 2025-06-05 | €3M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-10-14 | €4M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-12-19 | €4M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2026-03-20 | €5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2026-05-27 | €5M | FC St. Pauli |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.429
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Sands appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OrbánCBRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€5M
- GinterCBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€5M
- GuerreiroLBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€5M
- VavroCBVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€5M
- KokeCMAtlético de Madrid · midfielders€5M
- VanakenAMClub Brugge KV · midfielders€5M
- NørgaardDMArsenal FC · midfielders€5M
- Ward-ProwseCMBurnley FC · midfielders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).