FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Emile Smith Rowe

Emile Smith

Rowe

AMEngland · Fulham FC

№ 392765Elite €30.9M −0.43

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

Emile SmithRowe

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Fulham FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
25
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rowe at €20M. Model A, which never saw Rowe during training, estimates €30.9M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €18.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.43A €30.9M▲ +0.08B €18.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
82
Minutes
4,586
Goals
11
Assists
3
Started
53/82
Min / app
56
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rowe…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €30.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Emile Smith Rowe's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 85th, Assists per 90 33rd, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 30th85thGoals33rdAssists82ndMinutes41stStarts75thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.22 this player0.08 midfielder median85th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€4M
Feb 2019
Peak
€40M
Mar 2022
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
4 club changes
Jun 2026€20MFulham FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Fulham FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-02-10€4MRB Leipzig
2019-06-05€4MRB Leipzig
2019-12-10€3MArsenal FC U23
2020-02-27€3MHuddersfield Town
2020-04-08€2.7MHuddersfield Town
2020-10-13€2.7MArsenal FC
2021-03-18€13MArsenal FC
2021-06-08€18MArsenal FC
2021-10-05€28MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€38MArsenal FC
2022-03-29€40MArsenal FC
2022-06-15€40MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€38MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€35MArsenal FC
2023-10-09€30MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€25MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€22MArsenal FC
2024-10-01€28MFulham FC
2024-12-16€32MFulham FC
2025-05-30€30MFulham FC
2025-10-17€28MFulham FC
2025-12-09€22MFulham FC
2026-06-03€20MFulham FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.435

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 54% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 88% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rowe appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).